In a previous article, I shared a little history about the Great Depression of the 1930s and explained why the causes of the depression back then would be unlikely to repeat today. However, in the time that I wrote the article and sent it out to you (perhaps a week lag), new economic data has […]
Great Depression 2020? (Part 2) Read More »
In looking at the COVID-19 response globally and here in the United States, I can’t help but remember a concept I learned in calculus class around local versus global minimums and maximums. While I don’t remember any of the math, (my interpretation of) the concept has reappeared repeatedly in my client work and again in
COVID-19: Local vs. Global Optimization Read More »
I’m told there’s a saying on Wall Street that goes, “The trend is your friend.” I’m not a banker nor an asset manager, so I can’t vouch for its validity in that context. However, I think that, in a recession, this concept has a lot of value in terms of managing one’s career or business.
The Trend Is Your “Friend” Read More »
I’ve been noticing that there are questions lately about what caused the Great Depression and whether we’re at risk of something similar in 2020. The short answer is: No, I don’t think we’re at risk of another Great Depression. For context, I asked this exact same question in October 2008 at the start of the
Great Depression 2020? Read More »
There are two approaches to responding to an uncertain economy. The first is “defense,” which involves protecting your downside risk. The second is “offense,” which is about maximizing your upside opportunity (albeit sometimes from a lower starting position). The optimal approach is to do both. First, you play “defense” and protect your downside risk, then
Crisis Management: Offense vs. Defense Read More »
In the United States, there’s a big debate going on right now. Epidemiologists urge physical distancing as the best way to avoid catastrophic loss of lives. Economists point out that the cost of shutting down the economy is unprecedented and is heading toward catastrophic economic collapse (which also has enormous human costs). So, who is
Save Lives vs. Save the Economy Read More »
