If you’re searching for a “revenue forecasting model Excel,” chances are you’re a SaaS CEO, CFO, or founder looking for precision—not guesswork. You want to understand your future cash flows, set hiring plans, allocate capital efficiently, or prep for an investor conversation.
This article gives you everything you need to create, customize, and confidently present a revenue forecasting model in Excel—whether you’re pre-raise, post-raise, or approaching a liquidity event.
Related: Model revenue accurately with our SaaS Excel forecast guide
Table of Contents
1. What Is a Revenue Forecasting Model in Excel?
A revenue forecasting model in Excel is a dynamic spreadsheet that projects how much revenue your SaaS company will generate over time. It typically includes:
- Historical revenue data
- Assumptions about growth drivers
- Subscription or contract structure
- Churn and retention data
- New sales vs. expansion revenue
In SaaS, the best models go beyond just multiplying customers by price. They simulate the entire revenue engine—new MRR, churn, upgrades, downgrades, and reactivations.
2. Why Forecasting Revenue in SaaS Is Unique
SaaS revenue is:
- Recurring (not transactional)
- Lagging (most revenue shows up after the sale)
- Segmented (SMB, mid-market, enterprise)
- Cohort-driven (behavior changes over time)
Your model must capture:
- Monthly recurring revenue (MRR)
- Expansion revenue (upsells, cross-sells)
- Customer churn (logo churn and revenue churn)
- Contract lengths and billing cycles
This requires a more nuanced structure than traditional financial modeling.
3. Essential Components of a SaaS Revenue Forecasting Model
3.1. Customer Acquisition Engine
- New logos per month
- Lead-to-close conversion rate
- Average contract value (ACV)
3.2. Retention Engine
- Monthly churn rate (logo and revenue)
- Expansion revenue rate (net dollar retention)
3.3. Cohorts and Time-Phased Revenue
- Track customer cohorts over time
- Model revenue recognition by billing cycle
3.4. MRR Build Table
The Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) build is the backbone of your forecast. Each month should include:
- Starting MRR – what you begin the month with
- + New MRR – from new customers acquired this month
- – Churned MRR – revenue lost due to cancellations
- + Expansion MRR – upgrades, upsells, or reactivations
- = Ending MRR – becomes the starting point for next month
This table gives you a clean, trackable view of how revenue grows or shrinks over time.
3.5. Price Increases & Discounting Assumptions
-
- Future ACV changes
- % discount for sales promotions
4. Step-by-Step: How to Build a Revenue Forecasting Model in Excel
Step 1: Structure Your Workbook
- Tab 1: Dashboard (summary)
- Tab 2: Inputs & Assumptions
- Tab 3: MRR Build
- Tab 4: Cohort Analysis (optional)
- Tab 5: Charts
Step 2: Define Assumptions
- Starting customer count
- Monthly new customers
- Churn rate (%)
- Average revenue per user (ARPU)
- Expansion rate
Step 3: Create Your Time-Based Model (Monthly View)
- Column A: Months
- Column B: Starting MRR
- Column C: New MRR (New Customers × ARPU)
- Column D: Churned MRR (Prior Month × Churn Rate)
- Column E: Expansion MRR (Prior Month × Expansion %)
- Column F: Ending MRR = Starting + New – Churn + Expansion
Step 4: Layer in Revenue Recognition Rules
If you’re billing annually, revenue recognition must follow accrual rules:
- Split ACV over 12 months
- Use a waterfall method to recognize revenue
Step 5: Add Charts and KPI Callouts
- Monthly recurring revenue (line graph)
- New vs. churned vs. expansion revenue (stacked bar)
- LTV, CAC, payback period
5. Scenario Planning: Base, Best, and Worst Cases
In Excel, use different assumption tabs:
- Base Case (realistic)
- Best Case (aggressive conversion, low churn)
- Worst Case (high churn, sales cycle delay)
Use data validation dropdowns to toggle scenarios, or write formulas using Excel’s CHOOSE() or IF() functions to simulate multiple outcomes.
6. Mistakes to Avoid in Forecasting
- Using annual, not monthly intervals (too imprecise)
- Assuming churn is linear (it’s not)
- Ignoring expansion revenue
- Overestimating ramp time for new reps
- Modeling bookings instead of revenue
- Failing to update assumptions monthly
Your model is only as good as your assumptions—and your discipline in updating them.
7. Using Your Forecast in Strategic Planning, Fundraising & Exits
A great forecast model becomes a lever:
For Internal Planning:
- Hiring roadmap
- Marketing spend pacing
- Burn rate control
For Fundraising:
- Show how new capital translates to revenue
- Present 12–24 month revenue targets with logic
- Translate vision into numbers with our revenue forecasting Excel tutorial
For M&A or Exit Prep:
- Demonstrate recurring revenue momentum
- Build trust with acquirers
- Use a precise revenue forecasting model in Excel to back your valuation
8. Best Templates (Free + Paid)
Free:
Paid:
- SaaS CFO Forecasting Template
- Finmark (Excel-exportable)
- Alex Jarvis’ 40-row model with cohort logic
Pick based on your stage (pre-seed vs. Series B+), sales model (PLG vs. outbound), and internal finance expertise.
9. Final Thoughts
An investor-ready revenue forecasting model in Excel isn’t just a spreadsheet—it’s a story of your future. Used correctly, it helps you:
- Think clearly
- Plan rationally
- Fundraise strategically
- Exit successfully
Don’t just plug in numbers. Use the model as a strategic weapon. When you can explain your revenue trajectory in Excel with clarity, confidence, and logic—investors and acquirers pay attention.
Need help building or customizing your revenue forecasting model in Excel? We help SaaS founders turn messy assumptions into investor-grade financial models that unlock capital, clarity, and confidence.
Additional Resources
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